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PROHLÍŽENÍ ABSTRAKTA

EASY RISK FORMULA FOR PREDICTION OF HOSPITAL MORTALITY ON COVID-19
Tématický okruh: Varia
Typ: Poster - lékařský , Číslo v programu: 333
Plášek J.1, Dodulík J.1, Gai P.2, Hrstková B.3, Škrha J.4, Zlatohlávek L.4, Danko P.5, Ondráček P.6, Čubová E.7, Čapek B.8, Kollárová M.9, Fürst T.10, Václavík J.11

1 Interní a kardiologická klinika, Fakultní Nemocnice Ostrava, Ostrava, 2 Klinika plicních nemocí a tuberkulózy, Fakultní Nemocnice Ostrava, Ostrava, 3 Klinika infekčního lékařství, Fakultní nemocnice Ostrava, Ostrava, 4 III.Interní klinika, Všeobecná fakultní nemocnice, Praha, 5 Interní oddělení a Interní JIP, Nemocnice Havířov p.o, Havířov, 6 Interní oddělení a Interní JIP, Bílovecká nemocnice ,a.s., Jílovec, 7 Interní oddělení, Městská nemocnice Ostrava, Ostrava, 8 Interní oddělení, Sdružené zdravotnické zařízení Krnov, Krnov, 9 Interní oddělení, Nemocnice Třinec, Třinec, 10 Katedra matematické analýzy a aplikované matematiky, Univerzita Palackého, Olomouc, 11 Interní a Kardiologická klinika, Fakultní Nemocnice Ostrava, Ostrava


Introduction: SARS-CoV-2 respiratory infection is associated with significant morbidity and mortality, especially in hospitalized, high-risk patients. We aim to assess the risk factors for hospital mortality in non-vaccinated patients during the 2021 spring wave in the Czech Republic.
Methods: A total of 991 patients hospitalized between 1.1.2021 and 31.1.2021 with PCR confirmed SARS-CoV-2 acute respiratory infection in 2 university and 5 rural hospitals were included in this retrospective trial. After excluding patients with unknown outcomes (transfer to other facility), 790 patients entered the final analyses. The risk factors of in-hospital mortality were analyzed by logistic regression, for selected independent risk factors a receiver operating curve was constructed.
Results: Out of 790 patients included in the analysis, 282 (35.7 %) patients died in the hospital; 162/430 (37.7%) males and 120/360 (33.3%) females. There were 141 (17.8%) patients with mild, 461 (58.3%) patients with moderate and 187 (23.6%) patients with severe course of the disease based mainly on the modes of oxygenation therapy.
In a multivariate logistic regression, several models for the prediction of hospital mortality were evaluated. The best performing model contains only two predictors – age and the state of the patient based on oxygenation mode, both predictors rendered significant (p < 0.0001).
Conclusion: Both the predictors (oxygenation status/age) of hospital mortality are significant and have following implications: every 10 years of age increase the risk of hospital mortality 2.5x and every grade in the oxygenation status 20x times.